For the Quarter Ending September 2023


North America

In July, Arginine prices saw a significant drop, followed by subsequent increases in both August and September. The decline in July was attributed to a decrease in new orders and sales volume, reflecting the weak state of both domestic and international demand. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise its key policy interest rate in July, the highest level in 22 years, contributed to reduced overall demand in the economy, supporting the downward trend. However, prices rebounded in August and September due to higher energy prices, which increased overall business expenses and transportation costs, consequently raising Arginine pricing. Gasoline prices surged as Russia and Saudi Arabia implemented aggressive supply cutbacks, propelling crude oil to a 10-month high of $91 per barrel. Additionally, imports from major exporting countries like China decreased, reducing the supply of Arginine in the US market and causing prices to rise. The prioritization of inventory replenishment by market participants also played a role in the upward trajectory of Arginine prices.

Asia Pacific

Arginine prices experienced a 2.03 percent decline in July, followed by increases of 4.43% and 14.32% in August and September, respectively. The drop in July was linked to a slowdown in industrial activity and decreased demand from downstream sectors. China's official manufacturing PMI of 49.3 in July indicated a contraction in factory activity for the fourth consecutive month, driven by reduced overseas orders and insufficient domestic demand. Prices rebounded in August and September due to improved end-consumer demand and restricted supply in the market caused by the sustained downturn in the industrial sector. China's central bank also reduced its key interest rate to stimulate market consumption, contributing to the rise in Arginine prices. By September, China's manufacturing PMI showed signs of expansion, signaling a promising economic revival. As the third quarter concluded, prices settled at USD 5468/MT FOB Shanghai.

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Europe

Arginine prices declined by 0.68 percent in July but surged by 4.81% and 10.95% in August and September, respectively. The drop in July was attributed to a slowdown in business activity and reduced demand from downstream industries. Factors such as customer hesitancy, destocking, increasing borrowing rates, tightening market circumstances, and economic and geopolitical uncertainty contributed to the steep decline in demand for goods. Prices increased in August and September due to continuous inflation, rising interest rates, and the energy crisis. Germany's inflation rate in August was +6.1%, with food and energy prices outpacing average inflation. Energy product prices increased by 8.3% year on year in August. Persistent high inflation led to rising expenses and operational costs for businesses, contributing to the increase in Arginine prices in Germany. As the third quarter concluded, prices settled at USD 6477/MT CFR Hamburg.