Crude oil’s attempt to stage a rally took a hit when US government data showed a larger than expected rise in stockpiles. According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories increased by 10.4 million barrels to reach a total of 518 million barrels.

Prices for Brent Crude, the global benchmark, slid by 40 cents to $36.41 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate lost 54 cents to $33.86 following the announcement. Although Brent crude has risen by 35% since the 12 year low of $27.10 it hit on January 20th, further upside potential appears to be limited by the absence of any deal to cut global production.

A deal struck between Russia and a number of OPEC members to freeze production at January levels has helped draw a line under price falls but all talk of a production cut has been ruled out of the question by OPEC.

“If we’re going to see any sustained push beyond $35 and onto $40, we’re going to need a cut in global output or a weakening in the US dollar,” said Esan Souhani, a commodity trader at Nihon International.

Oil prices have fallen by as much as 70% since June 2014 in the face of chronic oversupply and a blanket refusal by OPEC to cut production to support prices. The cartel is maintaining high output levels in a bid to force shale oil producers in the United States to cut their production or to drive them out of business.

“Their strategy has taken much longer than they or anyone else predicted. Indeed, the shale oil producers have proven remarkably resilient and, to date, US production has only fallen by half a million barrels a day,” explained Souhani.

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