Mumbai, 20 September 2023: According to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup, August 2023 recorded investments worth US$5.2 billion across 67 deals. Exits were recorded at US$4.3 billion across 37 deals in August 2023, with open market exits accounting for 57% of all exits by value.

Vivek Soni, Partner and National Leader, Private Equity Services, EY said, “August 2023 recorded US$5.2 billion in PE/VC investments, 127% higher than the investments in August 2022 and 18% higher than July 2023. The number of deals in August 2023 was lower by 27 % y-0-y.

In August 2023, growth deals valued at US$2.4 billion were the highest across 14 deals compared to US$176 million invested across nine deals in August 2022, which is a 12-fold increase in value terms. PIPE investments recorded US$2.1 billion across 18 deals in August 2023, a more than 20-fold increase y-o-y in terms of value.

From a sector point of view, infrastructure was the top sector in August 2023, on the back of the large investment by GQG Partners Inc. in Adani Power Limited, recording US$1.8 billion in PE/VC investments across six deals. Retail and consumer products was the second largest sector with US$1 billion recorded across four deals.

PE/VC exits were at US$4.3 billion across 37 deals, a y-o-y increase of 35% by value. August 2023 has witnessed the highest value of exits during the year so far.

Startups are facing a funding winter, with VC investments in 3Q2023 likely to be the lowest in eight quarters. Nonetheless, there are some bright spots for India. Our spotlight sections delve deeper into the causes and implications of this funding winter.

On the macro front, we continue to see mixed signals. With the fears of a recession in the US abating, the Federal Reserve pausing its interest hikes during the previous review and inflation seeming to come under control there is growing optimism among investors. The recent spike in crude oil prices to well over $90/barrel however threatens to undo some of that optimism, especially around inflation abating and its impact on monetary policy. In India, Funds continue to remain skeptical as growth remains elusive for many startups and valuations remain high. Exits have picked up on the back of a strong revival in the capital markets, where PE/VC funds have been able to offload large stakes in recently listed holdings. With many sovereign wealth funds, especially from the Gulf nations, setting up shop in India and also increasing their exposure to Indian startups, the medium to long term outlook remains positive for the Indian startup sector despite the current short-term issues of tepid growth and governance troubles at some startups. The record level of fund raising by India – dedicated PE & VC funds and the pick in PE investment value bodes well for the rest of 2023.

Investments

PE/VC investments in August 2023 recorded US$5.2 billion, 127% higher than PE/VC investments in August 2022 (US$2.3 billion) and 18% higher than July 2023 on the back of two large billion-dollar-plus deals. In terms of number of deals, August 2023 (67 deals) recorded a 27% y-o-y decline (92 deals in August 2022).

August 2023 recorded 13 large deals (deals of value greater than US$100 million) aggregating US$4.5 billion, a 416% increase y-o-y in terms of value. The largest deal in August 2023 saw GQG Partners Inc. invest US$1.1 billion in Adani Power Limited.
In August 2023, 14 deals resulted in US$2.4 billion in growth investments, compared to the US$176 million invested in nine deals in August 2022, which is a 12-fold increase in value year-over-year. PIPE investments recorded 18 deals worth US$ 2.1 billion compared to US$98 million across five deals in August 2022. Startup investments recorded US$387 million across 27 deals in August 2023 compared to US$1 billion recorded across 63 deals in August 2022, a 62 % decline y-o-y in terms of value. Buyouts recorded US$300 million across five deals compared to US$943 million recorded across six deals in August 2022. Credit Investment recorded US$101 million across three deals compared to US$70 million across nine deals in August 2022.
From a sector point of view, infrastructure was the top sector in August 2023, on the back of the large investment by GQG Partners Inc. in Adani Power Limited, recording US$1.8 billion in PE/VC investments across six deals. The retail and consumer products sector was the second largest sector, with US$1 billion recorded across four deals.

Spotlight: Navigating the current VC investment slowdown

The world of venture capital (VC) investments is currently witnessing a significant slowdown, both globally and within India's burgeoning startup ecosystem. This section looks at some of the reasons behind this funding winter, how it is affecting startups, the implications for VC funds, and the near term outlook.

1. The current slowdown (Global and Indian): On a global scale, VC investments are down by 51% in 1H2023 on a y-o-y basis and 2Q2023 was the lowest quarter in over six quarters. In India, the decline is even more pronounced with year-to-date VC investments down by 69%. 3Q2023 is expected to record the lowest VC investments in eight quarters. The slowdown has been across deal segments, right from seed to late-stage growth.

This slowdown is evident from the fall in the number of unicorns. Until August, globally there were only 120 new unicorns in 2023 compared to 669 in all of 2022. India has recorded just one unicorn in 2023 to date compared to 21 in the entire 2022.

2. Reasons for the slowdown: Several factors contributed to the ongoing VC investment slowdown. One significant driver is high valuations, making it challenging for VC firms to underwrite their investment case, given the slowing growth and rising cost of capital. The decrease in growth rate post pandemic has lead investors to question the sustainability of these high valuations.

In India, governance issues have cast a shadow over some high-profile start-ups. Additionally, valuation markdowns have occurred in some of the erstwhile posterchild start-ups, further queering the pitch for VC investors. Regulatory uncertainties, like the angel tax, have added to the challenges faced by Indian startups.
This slowdown comes as many late-stage investors, who till recently were prolific backers of Indian startups, have taken a step back. Tiger Global has done just four deals in India this year compared to more than 40 last year, whereas SoftBank (which deployed over US$4 billion in India in 2021-2022) and Insight Partners (which backed several late-stage startups last year and in 2021) wrote virtually no checks. SoftBank and Tiger Global were investors in 33 of the 65 Indian start-ups that attained unicorn status in 2021 and 2022.
The lack of participation from late-stage backers and virtually no IPOs have also hurt the appetite of many mid-stage investors, that till recently were keen to ride the growth wave of many Indian startups – all the way into the capital markets.

3. Implications for startups: The VC funding slowdown has far-reaching implications for startups. As funding becomes scarcer, businesses are forced to change their ‘growth at any cost’ strategy. Costs are being cut to extend cash runway, business models and unit economics are being refined. Some are facing potential closures if they cannot adapt and demonstrate a clear path to profitability as investors remain reluctant to fund startups haven’t yet figured a path to profitability or positive unit economics

Several high-flying Indian startups have seen their existing investors mark down the value of their holdings, as these businesses remain caught up by declining growth and rising cost of capital.

As a response to all these constraints, we project that consolidation will happen amongst startups as will buyouts by Corporate India. While some of this has played out in the past 12 months, we project to see a lot more consolidation take place in the next 12 months. Cash-hungry startups are increasingly looking towards larger companies for buyers.

4. Response from VC Funds: Global and India: This altered landscape has confronted VC funds with both challenges and opportunities. Smaller VC firms are struggling to raise follow on funds, often falling short of their targets as LP’s dig deep into portfolio performance and question valuation marks. Larger funds, however, continue to attract investment, and this presents them with a unique opportunity to invest in potentially game-changing startups at lower valuations.

Venture capital firms that once raised mega funds are now scaling back, as mark to market valuations dip, and limited partners—the university endowments, pension funds, and family offices that invest in these funds—pull back on their allocations as they rebalance their public / private portfolio’s.
The fundraising market is also becoming more concentrated among larger funds. According to Preqin, half of the capital raised globally by venture capitalists in the first quarter went to five funds.
However, some VCs now see the current environment as a prime investing opportunity and have raised more money, thus leaning into writing more checks to startups.

5. Changing investment trends: The landscape shift isn't solely about VC firms. The role of investors is evolving as well. Traditional players have made fewer investments, while sovereign funds, especially from the Middle East, are stepping in to finance many deals in India. This shifting dynamic underscores the changing face of investments in the startup world.
There is also a sector churn that is happening with AI, alternative energy, cleantech, energy storage, digital health, and fintech attracting more investor interest than say consumer tech and e-commerce.
SaaS players too are seeing an opportunity, developing a product led model centered on the US market, almost like a 2.0 version of the erstwhile offshoring model which was services-based.

6. The resilience of India’s startups ecosystem: Despite these challenges, India's start-up ecosystem remains resilient. Some say that India is in a position analogous to where China was a decade ago, with a booming economy and a robust founder-investor ecosystem. India has close to 100 unicorns today compared to 1,000 in China. While the global landscape faces a funding winter, India has unique strengths in its demographics, talent pool, and market. India continues to remain the third-largest market for start-ups in 2023.

India-focused fundraising by VC funds is at an all-time high of US$5.8 billion raised to date in 2023. In contrast, global VC fundraising could see a 50% drop in 2023 at the current run-rate.

Future Outlook and Conclusion: Looking ahead, the long term outlook for India's startup ecosystem remains positive. The presence of considerable dry powder held by venture capitalists—is a promising sign. Active VC firms in India, including Peak XV Partners, Lightspeed, Accel, Elevation Capital, Matrix Partners India, 3one4 Capital, and Blume Ventures, have secured new and larger funds in the past 18 months. The future deployment of this capital can be a driving force for India's startups.

India is well-poised to weather this funding winter more comfortably than many other countries, as the underlying economy is on a strong footing and projections are positive. The bid-ask spread between where sellers are at and where VC investors feel comfortable investing will converge soon post which VC investing activity at saner valuation multiples (as compared to 2021) can be expected to pick up.

Exits

August 2023 recorded 37 exits worth US$4.3 billion, the highest value of exits in 22 months, compared to US$3.2 billion recorded in August 2022 across 28 deals.
Open market exits were the highest in August 2023 at US$2.5 billion across four deals, accounting for 57% of all exits by value.
The largest exit in August 2023 saw Baring Asia Private Equity Fund VII sell its approximately ~26.6% stake in Coforge Limited for US$925 million

Fundraise
August 2023 recorded total fundraises of US$1.5 billion compared to US$240 million raised in July 2023 and US$ 583 million in August 2022.

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