A recent illustration of this privilege pertains to a groundbreaking medication designed to significantly improve the landscape for type 2 diabetes treatment. This medication in focus is Tirzepatide, also known as Mounjaro, which represents a pioneering glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) analogue therapy. It has the potential to revolutionize the management of type 2 diabetes and addresses a related concern – weight management.

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GRG Health undertook a comprehensive global initiative, conducting interviews with approximately 200 respondents comprising a diverse group of doctors/providers, insurers, investors, and patients. The objective was to gain insights into Lilly's Mounjaro within a tight timeframe of six weeks. The project was executed by a team with an in-depth understanding of the disease, available therapies, and primary research methods.

The project's timelines made it an intensive effort where interviews were carried out and analyzed concurrently. Fortunately, a common theme emerged from all interviews: the unanimous recognition of the substantial advantages that Mounjaro offered in terms of improving patient outcomes.

The carefully selected pool of respondents firmly believed that the introduction of Mounjaro, alongside another recent entrant, Semaglutide (Ozempic, a GLP analogue from Novo Nordisk, which was examined in a similar project by the same team involving 200 respondents), had the potential to alter the current trajectory of disease progression. This transformation would stem from the ability to directly manage Body Mass Index (BMI) and combat obesity, two factors with a profound systemic impact on a patient's overall well-being.

It's worth noting that while most reports estimated Mounjaro's potential revenues at approximately $15 to $17 billion, nearly all interviewees believed that a 30% to 40% increase in this estimate (reaching around $25 billion) was plausible. However, the key factor in determining this outcome will be how Benefits Management responds to Mounjaro, particularly in terms of explicit approval for weight loss.

For GRG Health, it is fascinating to compare the insights gathered for Mounjaro with those from the previous research on Ozempic. It is challenging to convey the magnitude of the impact (in terms of opinions and revenue estimates) that can result from incremental improvements (Mounjaro outperforms Ozempic by approximately 3 pounds in weight loss and 0.23% in A1C scores).

While the full set of findings cannot be disclosed publicly due to client confidentiality agreements, GRG Health's analysis indicates that it will be intriguing to observe how SGLT2 inhibitors establish their place in type 2 diabetes prescriptions in the medium to long term, especially as Ozempic and Mounjaro solidify their positions alongside DPP4 inhibitors. This allocation of therapies is a critical consideration for type 2 diabetes, particularly when viewed in the context of the risks associated with acute kidney injury amid concerns of renal overload/failure and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

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