MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Important News
Euro Zone Unemployment Rate slipped to 11.5 percent in June.
Utilities added 88 BCF of Natural gas in storage last week.
US Unemployment Claims rose to 302,000 for the w/e on 25th Jul’14.
German Retail Sales grew by 1.3 percent in the month of June.
LME Copper inventories consistently declines for 7 days.
China’s Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 points to 51.7-mark in July.




US Data
US Economy Grows 4% In Second Quarter : Real gross domestic product of United States increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis* In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised)*The second estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment,state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment* Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP increased. SOURCES : Commodity Insights

Indian Currency
The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note and depreciated to three month low around 0.8 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of huge dollar demand from state run banks for corporate and defense related payments. Further, weak domestic market sentiments and strength in the DX after the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday continued with downside movement in the currency. Strong inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets failed to provide respite to fall in the currency. Also, investors remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting on 5th Aug’14 which limited gains in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra day low of 60.56 and closed at 60.55 on Thursday.

Precious Metals
Comex Gold prices ended modestly lower on Wednesday, pressured by a much stronger-than expected U.S. gross domestic product report and by a rising U.S. dollar index.
December silver futures prices ended marginally higher Wednesday. The Dollar Index surged higher on Wednesday after data showed that second-quarter U.S. Gross domestic product report was released Wednesday morning and came in at up 4.0%.
FOMC minutes showed that the Committee will continue to taper its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by slicing another $10 billion per month from the program, now totaling $25 billion a month.
Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, showed net longs in gold futures totaled 136,120 contracts, up 3.1% from net longs of 131,971 in the preceding week. Net silver longs totaled 46,221 contracts as of last week, down slightly from net longs of 46,795 contracts in the preceding week.
Indian Gold and Silver prices moved higher on Wednesday.
Exchange deliverable stock position for Gold and Silver as on 30th July 2014 on MCX: - 45.572 Kg and 7388.0553 Kg respectively.

Base Metals
Base metals complex ended mixed on Wednesday, with Copper, Lead and Zinc ended lower, while Aluminum and Nickel ended higher.
Copper prices were influenced after China’s refined copper output increased 8,121 MT on the month in June to 623,000 MT.
Participants will look ahead to key data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two largest economies.
Japanese output and shipments of rolled copper and brass shot up in the first six months of this year on higher domestic demand.
Total production in the first half came to 409,894 MT, an 8.8% rise on the 376,789 MT produced in the corresponding period a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Economy.
According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 44,107 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 48,994 contracts in the preceding week.
Indian Base metal complex moved higher on Wednesday But moving in volatile note on Friday.

Energy
WTI crude oil declined by around 1.5 percent on Thursday hitting the lowest level since March on news of a potentially lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery, while Brent also slipped amid signs of robust OPEC oil production.
On the MCX crude prices declined by 1.1 percent taking weak cues from international markets and closed at Rs.6006/bbl.
Outlook
Oil prices had been hitting multi-month highs in June on world political tensions. However, ample supplies of crude by the OPEC, rising supplies in the US, build up of gasoline inventories in the US and lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery are all indications that crude prices will correct further trading session.. Meanwhile, In Europe, traders are watching how sanctions will affect oil exports from Russia.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets
After falling last week for the sixth consecutive week, in the longest stretch of weekly declines in more than four years, natural gas prices on the NYMEX gained by more than 2.5 percent yesterday. Utilities added 88 BCF of gas in storage versus an expectation of 93 BCF which acted as a boost for prices.
On the MCX, gas prices gained by around 3.8 percent taking strong cues from international markets and closed at Rs.237.60/MMBtu.


NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
CHANA
Chana rates fell yet again as overall market sentiments remained weak for Pulses. With Monsoon revival expected to continue this week, any uptrend got limited for the commodity. However a rise in Festive season demand could support the prices . Traders however anticipate prices to be at low levels and expect demand to start rising over the next few weeks. An already weak Monsoon seen so far has been supporting the overall market sentiment for the commodity.
As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 345.60 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 18.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 127.36 lakh ha, pulses in 21.58 lakh ha, coarse cereals in 48.43 lakh ha, and oilseeds in 38.07 lakh ha. The planting of sugarcane and cotton is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 46.09 lakh ha and cotton in 56.00 lakh ha as on today.
On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments
In the first nine months of fiscal 2013-14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 mt; for the whole year, imports are projected at 2.6 mt, sharply down from 3.8 mt last year, according to Commerce Ministry data.

SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA

Refined soy oil did open on a weak note on poor buying support amid steady supplies but prices pulled up on strong dollar and technical short covering. The soy oil remained under pressure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov - Oct).
Soybean prices across mandis opened weak on poor offtake from crushers. The sowing progress in western parts of India is likely to restrict the upward movement. The international markets firmed up as demand for the limited crop is on the rise.
As per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseed plant-ing have improved from previous week's 38.1 lakh hectare to 107.8, compared but lower from last year’s figure of 153.1 lakh hectares. Soy-bean, which is one of the key oilseed crops has been planted over 77 lakh hectares till last week compared with 110 lakh hectares in the previous year.
As per IMD, the South-West Monsoon continue to rain actively in Soybean growing areas. The Monsoon deficit too has reduced significantly from to 24% as on 29th July and the worst effected Central India figures have come down to around 20 %.
The U.S. soybean crop is in the best shape for this time of year since 1994 as mild Midwest temperatures helped boost the outlook for yields.
U.S. soybean production will surge to an all-time high in the year that starts Sept. 1, and corn output will be the second-largest on recordas per USDA. Soybean yields on the first day of the tour averaged 52.5 bushels per acre, 25 percent higher than last year. While mild tempera-tures will aid crops, some of the Midwest may be drier than normal, though “perhaps not dry enough for a substantial yield threat.

JEERA (CUMIN SEED)

Jeera futures declined for the third straight session on Thursday on weak demand as buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks also added to the downside pressure and settled 0.84% lower.
Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Arrivals, production and Exports Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 3,000 bags on Thursday. (Source:
Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board)

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